US politics never fails to entertain. US President Barak Obama’s comprehensive win in the recent election generated massive media commentary about a surprise blow-out of what was touted as a very close contest.
Not only was it not close but the result was known by mid- evening, thus making a whole lot of pundits change gear from commenting on ‘what’s happening ‘ to ‘what the f@*&% just happened?’
What happened was that democracy (as in the actual voting public) and the facts won.
Despite the incessant media carpet bombing of the electorate with interminable musings and postulations from all sides, the voting public made up their own mind and, it appears, had done so well before the polls opened.
Much has been said about poll aggregator Nate Silver’s “magic touch” in accurately predicting the outcome in all 50 states but less has been said about the source polls Silver used, many of which were predicting the exact outcome nine months before counting started.
It is worth remembering that before the illusory and largely partisan boost Romney received in the first debate he was considered, by all and sundry including the majority of Republicans, an also-ran.
As the right-wing media machine turned a solid performance into “a stunning upset with the prospect of securing the presidency” they convinced themselves and the republican campaign that Romney could win. Anything that did not fit their narrative was labelled biased left-wing propaganda. Unaware irony is the best kind.
The facts were there all along for anyone who cared to look but why let the facts get in the way of a good story?
None of this is to take anything away from the outstanding, data-driven, effort of the Obama campaign to get out the democrat vote, let alone to exploit many of Romney’s obvious weaknesses.
Even so the lesson is very clear; if you believe your own propaganda you are doomed. Of course it is essential to have a competitive message but you need a full and frank assessment of the facts if you are to devise a plan that has any chance of success
An echo chamber of yes –men and supplicants (aided and abetted by media relishing a close contest to their own ratings) will send you marching confidently into the teeth of defeat, and skulking back with a look of total shock and disbelief, each time.
In the absence of anything more concrete it is probably best, in any contest, to go with the facts and make your plans accordingly.
JK
Sorry, not sorryJune 21, 2023 - 1:27 pm
Data Breaches – It’s not if. It’s when!October 4, 2022 - 11:52 am
You will be accountable, but we won’t.May 19, 2021 - 3:14 pm
An Impossible Standard to Meet – or – Nobody Expects The Spanish InquisitionMay 19, 2021 - 3:11 pm
The rise of the echo chamberDecember 2, 2020 - 10:26 pm
2013 – the election year we have to have
With 2012 now behind us, attention is being focused on timing of the Federal election.
The message coming out of the Labor Caucus is: the later the better.
There are two cogent reasons for this. First, the Prime Minister needs as much time as possible to turn around the poll results. Unless something radical happens to change the outlook, improving the polls will take many months – if, indeed, it can be done.
The second reason is that the Labor backbenchers don’t want to consider an early poll because their jobs are on the line. The polls would indicate at this stage that the ALP is on a hiding to nothing. Better to string out the salaries and expenses for as long as possible.
If there is a coup and the Prime Minister is deposed, a new leader – it would almost certainly be Kevin Rudd – would need time to establish (or in his case re-establish) credentials.
In fact, when Rudd was expected to take over late in August, the word was he wanted the deed done as quickly as possible so he would have at least 12 months up his sleeve. A leadership change now would leave him well short of that.
The theory that the Prime Minister would want to call an early poll to avoid having to bring down another budget doesn’t hold water.
Having insisted for the past couple of years the Government would bring down a surplus in 2012-13, the Prime Minister and Treasurer Swan are rapidly distancing themselves from that commitment. If an early election was in prospect, why would they bother?
The only wild card in election timing is if Rudd resumes the Prime Ministership and decides to call a snap election on a whim to take advantage of the honeymoon period granted all new leaders.
Based on the evidence surrounding the aborted coup in August, this seems unlikely. And the backbench wouldn’t forgive him for that.
GO
Victorian politics: spot the future leader
The Victorian election is just two years away. For those with an abiding interest in Victorian politics and establishing and maintaining dialogue with the State Government, now is the time to develop relationships with parliamentarians who are destined for higher office.
If the Baillieu Government retains office after the 2014 election, there will inevitably be changes in the ministry. Another reason to take a close interest in rising stars is that there could perhaps be a ministerial reshuffle before the next State election.
At this stage, we have confined our interest to the parliamentary Liberal Party. We shall look at the ALP and the National Party later on.
The Libs have several members outside the present ministry that look to have what it takes to make it into cabinet. We have identified four in the Legislative Assembly and two in the Legislative Council, but there may be more. We shall discuss them as we find them.
The two Upper House members that present themselves are Ed O’Donohue and Andrea Coote. Both are Parliamentary Secretaries (which is effectively a traineeship for a Ministry). Andrea is Parliamentary Secretary for Families and Community Services and Ed is Parliamentary Secretary for Transport. Both work hard, keep themselves well informed and are very articulate.
Andrea was close to Peter Costello. Because of tension between Baillieu and Costello, this nexus became an issue while the Libs were in Opposition, but it appears that at least some of the fences have been mended. Andrea is MLC for Southern Metropolitan.
Ed O’Donohue is still young but he has excellent presence and interpersonal skills. Ed is MLC for Eastern Victoria.
In the lower house, Heidi Victoria (MLA for Bayswater) is Parliamentary Secretary to the Premier and Parliamentary Secretary assisting the Premier with the Arts. She has impressed everyone we know with whom she has had dealings. She is strong, well-networked, efficient and very much on top of the job.
Gary Blackwood (MLA for Narracan) is Parliamentary Secretary for Forestry and Fisheries. David Southwick is the Member for Caulfield. Both are well regarded. David coordinates the interface between sitting members and the policy forums inside the Liberal Party. This is a complex and delicate job and he does it well.
A recent entrant into parliament is Andrew Katos, Member for South Barwon. Andrew is very energetic and an excellent networker. It’s early days, but – providing the Liberal Party can retain government – Andrew is a candidate for promotion.
The Libs need to win a second term and that is by no means assured. However, it never hurts to be aware of potential state leaders and look at opportunities to develop appropriate relationships.
GO
US politics – when the spin stops and the penny drops
US politics never fails to entertain. US President Barak Obama’s comprehensive win in the recent election generated massive media commentary about a surprise blow-out of what was touted as a very close contest.
Not only was it not close but the result was known by mid- evening, thus making a whole lot of pundits change gear from commenting on ‘what’s happening ‘ to ‘what the f@*&% just happened?’
What happened was that democracy (as in the actual voting public) and the facts won.
Despite the incessant media carpet bombing of the electorate with interminable musings and postulations from all sides, the voting public made up their own mind and, it appears, had done so well before the polls opened.
Much has been said about poll aggregator Nate Silver’s “magic touch” in accurately predicting the outcome in all 50 states but less has been said about the source polls Silver used, many of which were predicting the exact outcome nine months before counting started.
It is worth remembering that before the illusory and largely partisan boost Romney received in the first debate he was considered, by all and sundry including the majority of Republicans, an also-ran.
As the right-wing media machine turned a solid performance into “a stunning upset with the prospect of securing the presidency” they convinced themselves and the republican campaign that Romney could win. Anything that did not fit their narrative was labelled biased left-wing propaganda. Unaware irony is the best kind.
The facts were there all along for anyone who cared to look but why let the facts get in the way of a good story?
None of this is to take anything away from the outstanding, data-driven, effort of the Obama campaign to get out the democrat vote, let alone to exploit many of Romney’s obvious weaknesses.
Even so the lesson is very clear; if you believe your own propaganda you are doomed. Of course it is essential to have a competitive message but you need a full and frank assessment of the facts if you are to devise a plan that has any chance of success
An echo chamber of yes –men and supplicants (aided and abetted by media relishing a close contest to their own ratings) will send you marching confidently into the teeth of defeat, and skulking back with a look of total shock and disbelief, each time.
In the absence of anything more concrete it is probably best, in any contest, to go with the facts and make your plans accordingly.
JK
Getting on the front foot
With the summer of Cricket already upon us it is worth reflecting on the business lessons that can be drawn from a casual observation of the basic strategies of the game.
I leave you to draw the parallels with the business world.
RM